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The trajectory of AI

Fall 2026 · Week 1

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This week combines the state of AI capabilities, the drivers of recent progress, theories of AGI, and the OpenAI / Hugging Face incident. We will review where AI is today, how we got here, and what we should expect in the future.

Week 1 readings

Will we have AGI by 2030?

Benjamin Todd · 80,000 Hours · March 2025

Condensed by MAIA

When AI builds itself

Anthropic Institute

AI research and recursive self-improvement

Four Background Claims

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Background arguments about advanced AI

OpenAI / Hugging Face incident investigation

Ryan Greenblatt, Ajeya Cotra, Hjalmar Wijk · METR

A case study in agent behavior